Lee Kuan Yew
The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World
Overview
When Lee Kuan Yew speaks, presidents, prime ministers, diplomats, and CEOs listen. Lee, the founding father of modern Singapore and its prime minister from 1959 to 1990, has honed his wisdom during more than fifty years on the world stage. Almost single-handedly responsible for transforming Singapore into a Western-style economic success, he offers a unique perspective on the geopolitics of East and West. American presidents from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama have welcomed him to the White House; British prime ministers from Margaret Thatcher to Tony Blair have recognized his wisdom; and business leaders from Rupert Murdoch to Rex Tillerson, CEO of Exxon Mobil, have praised his accomplishments. This book gathers key insights from interviews, speeches, and Lee’s voluminous published writings and presents them in an engaging question and answer format.
Lee offers his assessment of China’s future, asserting, among other things, that “China will want to share this century as co-equals with the U.S.” He affirms the United States’ position as the world’s sole superpower but expresses dismay at the vagaries of its political system. He offers strategic advice for dealing with China and goes on to discuss India’s future, Islamic terrorism, economic growth, geopolitics and globalization, and democracy. Lee does not pull his punches, offering his unvarnished opinions on multiculturalism, the welfare state, education, and the free market. This little book belongs on the reading list of every world leader—including the one who takes the oath of office on January 20, 2013.
Lee offers his assessment of China’s future, asserting, among other things, that “China will want to share this century as co-equals with the U.S.” He affirms the United States’ position as the world’s sole superpower but expresses dismay at the vagaries of its political system. He offers strategic advice for dealing with China and goes on to discuss India’s future, Islamic terrorism, economic growth, geopolitics and globalization, and democracy. Lee does not pull his punches, offering his unvarnished opinions on multiculturalism, the welfare state, education, and the free market. This little book belongs on the reading list of every world leader—including the one who takes the oath of office on January 20, 2013.
About the Authors
Graham Allison is Douglas Dillon Professor of Government and Director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School.
Robert D. Blackwill is Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Ali Wyne is an associate of the Belfer Center.
Robert D. Blackwill is Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Ali Wyne is an associate of the Belfer Center.
Reviews
“Lee's powerful intellect is captured in a new book, Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World . It's a collection of interviews with him by Harvard University professor Graham Allison, Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow Robert Blackwill and Harvard's Belfer Center researcher Ali Wyne, while also drawing on other selected and cited writings by and about Lee. Now 89, officially retired and somewhat frail, Lee has mellowed with age — not unlike his creation Singapore, governed today with a lighter touch even as its citizens grow more vocal. Yet, as the book, and the adaptation here of the China chapter, reveal, Lee is as sharp, direct and prescient as ever. Though the volume was completed before China's current territorial tensions with its neighbors, it helps expose, and explain, Beijing's hardball mind-set.” —TIME Magazine
“Graham Allison and Bob Blackwill have important questions to ask about China, America and the extraordinary impact of the relationship of those two countries on the rest of the world. For answers, they turned to Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s first premier and one of the world’s most formidable geopolitical thinkers and strategists. The result is a fascinating book called Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States, and the World.” —Ian Bremmer, Reuters
“Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World forms a kind of last testament of the ailing, 89-year-old Mr. Lee. It is based on interviews with Mr. Lee by the authors—Graham Allison, a professor of government at Harvard's Kennedy School, and Robert Blackwill, a former U.S. diplomat—to which the authors add a distillation of Mr. Lee's speeches, writings and interviews with others over many years.”
—Karen Elliott House, Wall Street Journal
“Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World is an anthology of interviews and speeches Lee has given over the last four decades…readers will find themselves entertained and challenged by Lee Kuan Yew's lucidity, powerful arguments and acerbic tongue.”
—Anchalee Kongrut, Economic Observer
http://mitpress.mit.edu/books/lee-kuan-yew
“Graham Allison and Bob Blackwill have important questions to ask about China, America and the extraordinary impact of the relationship of those two countries on the rest of the world. For answers, they turned to Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s first premier and one of the world’s most formidable geopolitical thinkers and strategists. The result is a fascinating book called Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States, and the World.” —Ian Bremmer, Reuters
“Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World forms a kind of last testament of the ailing, 89-year-old Mr. Lee. It is based on interviews with Mr. Lee by the authors—Graham Allison, a professor of government at Harvard's Kennedy School, and Robert Blackwill, a former U.S. diplomat—to which the authors add a distillation of Mr. Lee's speeches, writings and interviews with others over many years.”
—Karen Elliott House, Wall Street Journal
“Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World is an anthology of interviews and speeches Lee has given over the last four decades…readers will find themselves entertained and challenged by Lee Kuan Yew's lucidity, powerful arguments and acerbic tongue.”
—Anchalee Kongrut, Economic Observer
http://mitpress.mit.edu/books/lee-kuan-yew
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Interviews and selections by Graham Allison and Robert D. Blackwill, with Ali Wyne. Published by The MIT Press, February 2013. © 2013 Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. All rights reserved.
C H A P T E R 1
The Future of China
Are Chinese leaders seriousabout displacing the United States as the number 1 power inAsia? In the world? What does number 1 mean? How willChina’s behavior toward other countries change if China be-comes the dominant Asian power? What is China’s strategyfor becoming number 1? What are the major hurdles in exe-cuting that strategy? How much urgency do China’s leadersfeel about achieving primacy in their region and beyond?How do China’s leaders see the U.S. role in Asia changingas China becomes number 1? Is the double-digit growththat China has maintained over three decades likely to con-tinue for the next several decades? Will China become a de-mocracy? Will China actually become number 1? How should one assess Xi Jinping? These questions are central tothe likely course of Asian and world history. Lee Kuan Yew’s thoughtful answers in this chapter reºect decades of observ-ing and analyzing China and its leaders.
Are Chinese leaders serious about displacing the United States as the number 1 power in Asia? In the world?
Of course. Why not? They have transformed a poor society by an economic miracle to become now the second-largest economy in the world—on track, as Goldman Sachs has predicted, to be-come the world’s largest economy in the next 20 years. They have followed the American lead in putting people in space and shooting down satellites with missiles. Theirs is a culture 4,000 years old with 1.3 billion people, many of great talent—a huge and very talentedpool to draw from. How could they not aspire to be number 1 in Asia, and in time the world? 1
Today, China is the world’s fastest developing nation, growing at rates unimaginable 50 years ago, a dramatic transformation noone predicted. . . . The Chinese people have raised their expecta-tions and aspirations. Every Chinese wants a strong and rich China, a nation as prosperous, advanced, and technologically competent as America, Europe, and Japan. This reawakened sense of destiny is an overpowering force. 2
The Chinese will want to share this century as co-equals withthe U.S. 3
It is China’s intention to be the greatest power in the world.The policies of all governments toward China, especially neighbor-ing countries, have already taken this into account. These govern-ments are repositioning themselves because they know that there will be consequences if they thwart China when its core interests are at stake. China can impose economic sanctions simply by deny-ing access to its market of 1.3 billion people, whose incomes and purchasing power are increasing. 4
Unlike other emergent countries, China wants to be China andaccepted as such, not as an honorary member of the West. 5
What does number 1 mean? How will China’s behavior toward other countries change if China becomes the dominant Asian power?
At the core of their mindset is their world before colonization and the exploitation and humiliation that brought. In Chinese, China means “Middle Kingdom”—recalling a world in which they were dominant in the region, other states related to them as supplicants to a superior, and vassals came to Beijing bearing tribute: for example, the sultan of Brunei, who carried silk as his offering, but who died there four centuries ago and now has a shrine in Beijing. 6
Will an industrialized and strong China be as benign to Southeast Asia as the United States has been since 1945? Singaporeis not sure. Neither are Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. . . . We already see a China more self-assured and willing to take tough positions. 7
The concern of America is what kind of world they will face when China is able to contest their preeminence. . . . Many medium and small countries in Asia are also concerned. They are uneasy that China may want to resume the imperial status it had in earlier centuries and have misgivings about being treated as vassal states having to send tribute to China as they used to in past centuries. 8
They expect Singaporeans to be more respectful of China as it grows more infuential. They tell us that countries big or small areequal: we are not a hegemon. But when we do something they do not like, they say you have made 1.3 billion people unhappy. . . . So please know your place. 9
What is China’s strategy for becoming number 1?
The Chinese have concluded that their best strategy is to build a strong and prosperous future, and use their huge and increasingly highly skilled and educated workers to out-sell and out-build all others. They will avoid any action that will sour up relations with the U.S. To challenge a stronger and technologically superior power like the U.S. will abort their “peaceful rise.”10
China is following an approach consistent with ideas in the Chinese television series The Rise of Great Powers, produced by the Party to shape discussion of this issue among Chinese elites.The mistake of Germany and Japan was their effort to challenge the
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something that is startling.” And they said, “What would you say?”I replied: “Peaceful renaissance, or evolution, or development.” A recovery of ancient glory, an updating of a once great civilization. But it is already done. Now the Chinese have to construe it as best they can. A year ago, a Chinese leader in his 70s asked me, “Do you believe our position on peaceful rise?” I answered, “Yes, I do—but with one caveat.” Your generation has been through the anti- Japanese war, the Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution,the Gang of Four, and ªnally the Open Door policy. You know there are many pitfalls, that for China to goup the escalator without mishaps, internally you need stability, externally you need peace. However, you are inculcating enormous pride and patriotism in your young in a restored China. . . . It is volatile.” The Chinese leader said they would ensure that the young understood. Well, I hope they do. Somewhere down this road, a generation may believe they have come of age, before they have. 14
China’s strategy for Southeast Asia is fairly simple: China tells the region, “come grow with me.” At the same time, China’s leaders want to convey the impression that China’s rise is inevitable and that countries will need to decide if they want to be China’s friend or foe when it “arrives.” China is also willing to calibrate its engagement to get what it wants or express its displeasure. 15
China is sucking the Southeast Asian countries into its economic system because of its vast market and growing purchasing power. Japan and South Korea will inevitably be sucked in as well. It just absorbs countries without having to use force. China’s neighbors want the U.S. to stay engaged in the Asia-Paciªc so that they are not hostages to China. The U.S. should have established a free-trade area with Southeast Asia 30 years ago, well before the Chinese magnet began to pull the region into its orbit. If it had done so, its purchasing power would now be so much greater than it is, and all of the Southeast Asian countries would have been linked to the U.S. economy rather than depending on China’s. Economics sets underlying trends. China’s growing economic sway will be very difªcult to ªght.16
China’s emphasis is on expanding their inºuence through theeconomy. In the geopolitical sense, they are more concerned now with using diplomacy in their foreign policy, not force. 17
What are the major hurdles in executing that strategy?
Internally, the chief challenges are culture, language, an inability toattract and integrate talent from other countries, and, in time,governance. 18
Even if China were as open to talented immigrants as the U.S., how can one go there and integrate into society without a mas-tery of Chinese? Chinese is a very difªcult language to learn—monosyllabic and tonal. One can learn conversational Chinese after a few years, but it is very difªcult to be able to read quickly.I do not know if China will be able to overcome the language barrier and the attendant difªculty in recruiting outside talent un-less it makes English the dominant language, as Singapore has.
Children there learn Chinese ªrst. Then they learn English.They might go to the U.S. as a teenager and become ºuent, but theyhave 4,000 years of Chinese epigrams in their head. 19
China will inevitably catch up to the U.S. in absolute GDP. But its creativity may never match America’s, because its culture does not permit a free exchange and contest of ideas. How else to ex-plain how a country with four times as many people as America—and presumably four times as many talented people—does notcome up with technological break throughs? 20
Can the Chinese break free from their own culture? It will require going against the grain of 5,000
years of Chinese history.When the center is strong, the country prospers. When the center is weak, the emperor is far away, the mountains are high, and there are many little emperors in the provinces an counties.This is their cul-tural heritage. . . . Chinese traditions thus produce a more uniform mandarinate. 21
The biggest single fear China’s leaders have is the corrosive effect of graft and the revulsion that it evokes in people. They arenever quite sure when it will blow up. 22
There will be enormous stresses because of the size ofthecoun-try and the intractable nature of the problems, the poor infra-structure, the weak institutions, the wrong systems that they haveinstalled, modeling themselves upon the Soviet system in Stalin’s time. 23
China faces enormous economic problems—a disparity in in-come between the rich coastal cities and the inland provinces, and in income within the coastal cities. They have got to watch thatcarefully or they might get severe discontent and civil disorder. 24
Technology is going to make their system of governance obso-lete. By 2030, 70% or maybe 75% of their people will be in cities,small towns, big towns, mega big towns. They are going to have cellphones, Internet, satellite TV. They are going to be well-informed;they can organize themselves. You cannot govern them the way youare governing them now, where you just placate and monitor a few people, because the numbers will be so large. 25
Increasingly cheap and available technology and cascades of reverse migration are wising people up to the true story of the ex-ploitation of China’s heretofore isolated rural regions. And, further-more,the Chinese know that with their industrialization, every year, ten or plus millions will go into the new towns they are constructing for their people. . . . If they change in a pragmatic way, as they have been doing, keeping tight security control and not allowing riots and not allowing rebellions and, at the same time, easing up . . . giv-ing more provincial authority, more city authority, more grassroots power, it is holdable. 26
China did not have to worry about the rest of the world when it was an empire. This time, it has to worry about the rest of the world, because without the resources, the oil, the nickel, whatever, its growth will stop. 27
Present-day China faces a very advanced North America,Europe, Japan, and a fairly developed Southeast Asia and India. . . .China’s leaders 30 years hence will know that although by 2050 China will be the biggest economy in GNP [gross national prod-uct], per capita, they will still be small, and technologically, they will still be way behind. So to get there, they must have a sense of real-ism. . . . They have got to be like Singapore’s leaders, with a very keen sense of what is possible and what is not. They must know that to dominate Asia is not possible. 28
Straight-line extrapolations from such a remarkable record arenot realistic. China has more handicaps going forward and more obstacles to overcome than most observers recognize. Chief among these are their problems of governance: the absence of the rule of law, which in today’s China is closer to the rule of the emperor; a huge country in which little emperors across a vast expanse exercise great local inºuence; cultural habits that limit imagination and cre-ativity, rewarding conformity; a language that shapes thinking through epigrams and 4,000 years of texts that suggest everything worth saying has already been said, and said better by earlier writ-ers; a language that is exceedingly difªcult for foreigners to learn sufªciently to embrace China and be embraced by its society; and severe constraints on its ability to attract and assimilate talent fromother societies in the world. While Singapore shares with China many of the core philo-sophical tenants of Confucianism, we worked over the past 40 years to establish English as our ªrst language, and Chinese as the sec-ond. Why? Certainly not by accident or without provoking strong opposition. We did so to open ourselves to the world and allow ourselves to engage and embrace the main forces of discovery and invention and creativity that occur not only in the language but alsoin the mentality of English.We could do that in a small city-state with strong leadership. While I once advised a Chinese leader to make English the ªrst lan-guage of China, clearly that is not realistic for such a great, conªdent country and culture. But it is a serious handicap. 29
How much urgency do China’s leaders feel about achieving primacy in their region and beyond?
The Chinese are in no hurry to displace the U.S. as the number 1 power in the world and to carry the burden that is part and par-cel of that position. For now, they are quite comfortable in being part of a larger group like the G20 [Group of Twenty] where theirviews will be taken seriously and economic interests safeguarded, but the responsibility is shared amongst 20 member states.30
While there are no doubt voices calling for China to movemore rapidly in establishing its superiority, demanding the respect that comes along with that standing, and exercising this role, the center of gravity among the leaders is cautious and conservative. They operate on the basis of consensus and have a long view. While some may imagine that the 21st century will belong to China, others expect to share this century with the U.S. as they build up to China’s century to follow.
How do China’s leaders see the U.S. role in Asia changing as Chinabecomes number 1?
The leadership recognizes that as the leading power in the region for the seven decades since World War II, the U.S. has provided a stability that allowed unprecedented growth for many nations in-cluding Japan, the Asian Tigers, and China itself. China knows that it needs access to U.S. markets, U.S. technology, opportunities for Chinese students to study in the U.S. and bring back to China new ideas about new frontiers. It therefore sees no proªt in confront-ing the U.S. in the next 20 to 30 years in a way that could jeopardize these beneªts.Rather, its strategy is to grow within this framework, biding its time until it becomes strong enough to successfully redeªne this political and economic order.In the security arena, the Chinese understand that the U.S. has spent so much more and has built up such advantages that direct challenges would be futile. Not until China has overtaken the U.S.in the development and application of technology can they envisage confronting the U.S. militarily. 32
What are the Americans going to ªght China over? Controlover East Asia? The Chinese need not ªght over East Asia. Slowly and gradually, they will expand their economic ties with East Asia and offer them their market of 1.3 billion consumers. . . .Extrapolate that another 10, 20 years and they will be the top importer and exporter of all East Asian countries. How can theAmericans compete in trade? 33
I do not see the Americans retreating from Asia. But I see Chinese power growing. The Chinese attitude is: we are not against you; we welcome an American presence—because they know they cannot substitute for the Americans, and the countries here wel-come the Americans. So they just wait and grow stronger. Eco-nomically and militarily, they may not catch up for 100 years in technology, but asymmetrically, they can inºict enormous damage on the Americans. 34
Is the double-digit growth that China has maintained over threedecades likely to continue for the next several decades?
During the last three decades, China’s economy has grown at thephenomenal rate of 10% per year, sometimes even exceeding 12%.Can China maintain such high rates for at least another decade? Ithink it can. China is starting from a lower base, and its 1.3 billiondomestic consumers will keep rates up because their disposable in-comes are growing. 35
Will China become a democracy?
No. China is not going to become a liberal democracy; if it did,it would collapse. Of that, I am quite sure, and the Chinese intelligentsia also understands that. If you believe that there is going to be a revolution of some sort in China for democracy, you are wrong. Where are the students of Tiananmen now? They are irrele-vant. The Chinese people want a revived China. 36
Can it be a parliamentary democracy? This is a possibility inthe villages and small towns. . . . The Chinese fear chaos and will al- ways err on the side of caution. It will be a long evolutionary pro-cess, but it is possible to contemplate such changes. Transportation and communications have become so much faster and cheaper.The Chinese people will be exposed to other systems and cultures and know other societies through travel, through the Internet, and through smart phones. One thing is for sure: the present system will not remain unchanged for the next 50 years. 37
To achieve the modernization of China, her Communist leaders are prepared to try all and every method, except for democracy with one person and one vote in a multi-party system. Their two main reasons are their belief that the Communist Party of China must have a monopoly on power to ensure stability; and their deep fear of instability in a multiparty free-for-all, which would lead to aloss of control by the center over the provinces, with horrendous consequences, like the warlord years of the 1920s and ’30s. 38
I do not believe you can impose on other countries standards which are alien and totally disconnected with their past. So to askChina to become a democracy, when in its 5,000 years of recorded history it never counted heads; all rulers ruled by right of being the emperor, and if you disagree, you chop off heads, not count heads.
But I agree that in this world of instant communication and satel-lites, you cannot have barbaric behavior and say it is your internal problem....But no won human rights, they have be gun to talk, and they recognize that if they want to be respected in the world com-munity, they want to win a certain status with the rest of the world, not just advanced countries, but even the developing countries, then they cannot behave in a barbaric fashion to their own people. 39
China discovered that to run a modern state it needed the ruleof law. It had a comprehensive set of legal codes by 2035 and foundthat a stable legal system, together with clear administrative rules,actually strengthened central authority. Erring provincial and localgovernments were brought to book through due process of law, amethod more effective than the endless negotiations that had beenthe practice before. Also, with the rule of law, ordinary citizens are now protected from the arbitrary authority of ofªcials. Business en-terprises are also able to plan large long-term investments. The in-dependence of the judiciary took another 20 years to achieve inpractice, because historical tradition, which required magistrates,as ofªcers of the emperor, to carry out imperial orders, was deeply embedded in Chinese ofªcialdom (Lee’s 1993 prediction about how Chinese governance would operate in 2150). 40
Will China actually become number 1?
Their great advantage is not in military inºuence but in their eco-nomic inºuence. . . . They have the manpower to do things cheaper in any part of the world economically. Their inºuence can only grow and grow beyond the capabilities of America. 41
The chances of it going wrong in China—if they have prag-matic, realistic leaders who are not ideologically blinkered—are about one in ªve. I would not say zero, because their problems are weighty ones: system change, business culture change, reducing corruption, and forming new mindsets. 42
The Chinese have ªgured out that if they stay with “peaceful rise” and just contest forªrst position economically and technologi-cally, they cannot lose. 43
The 21st century will see Asia recover its place in the world.Their progress in the last 30 years entitles East Asians including the Chinese to be optimistic about their future. Short of some major unforeseeable disaster which brings chaos or breaks up China once again into so many warlord ªefdoms, it is only a question of time be-fore the Chinese people reorganize, reeducate, and train themselves to take full advantage of modern science and technology. China will quicken the pace of its development by using inputs from the in-dustrial and newly industrializing countries to catch up with and become, ªrst, a fully industrialized, and next, a high-tech society—if not in 50 years, then in 100 years. 44
How should one assess Xi Jinping [the incoming president of China]?
He is reserved—not in the sense that he will not talk to you, but in the sense that he will not betray his likes and dislikes. There is always a pleasant smile on his face, whether or not you have said something that annoyed him. He has iron in his soul, more than Hu Jintao, who ascended the ranks without experiencing the trials and tribulations that Xi endured. 45
I would put him in Nelson Mandela’s class of persons. A per-son with enormous emotional stability who does not allow his per-sonal misfortunes or sufferings to affect his judgment. In other words, he is impressive. 46
http://onpoint.wbur.org/2013/02/13/insights-from-asias-senior-statesman-lee-kuan-yew
